21.- Investment, productivity and balance of trade in the Spanish economy (2000-2023)

The evolution of the Spanish economy over the past decade is characterised by two phenomena that mark a shift from previous historical patterns. The first is a negative investment gap (as a percentage of GDP) compared to the biggest European countries, which has been blamed for negatively impacting productivity growth. The second is a persistent positive and persistent current account balance throughout the expansion phase of the cycle. While the first phenomenon would seem to indicate structural deficits in the Spanish economy, the second suggests an improvement in competitiveness. The two phenomena are related, as the downside of a positive balance of trade is the transferral of resources to other economies, helping to reduce the deficit accrued in the past, rather than reinforcing gross capital formation in the country. The report on the future of the Single Market coordinated by Enrico Letta explicitly highlights the systematic gap between saving and investment at a European level, which results in an annual flow of around “€300 billion of European families’ savings […] abroad, primarily to the American economy, due to the fragmentation of our financial markets” (Letta, 2024, p.11).