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20.- The reabsorption of financial imbalances and the resilience of the Spanish economy, 2008-2024: a long-range view

Spain is one of the European Union countries that suffer from excessive macroeconomic imbalances, although the emphasis on their severity has been diminishing of late. With respect to the country’s current account balance or net external borrowing, for example, the European Commission’s analysis in 2023 focused on the problems of countries with an overly negative IIP (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Slovakia), but made no mention of Spain (EC, 2023h). Spain’s absence from the list reflects the fact that the country, since 2021, has succeeded in sustaining foreign surpluses and deleveraging trends initiated over a decade ago. Overall, in May 2024, Spain achieved a degree of normality in relation to its excesses of internal and external debt that helps to explain the resilience of the country’s economy to the shocks experienced since 2020. The improvement, however, is partly asymmetrical. Against a reduction in private debt, there has emerged a high level of public borrowing at a time when the levels of both internal and external debt still need to fall.
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